I tink it maybe be a good ting…People needs to slow down and jus’ enjoy what dey got and stop going into so much debt…” 

The news has been all over the airwaves and screens for ten days now. Say it ain’t true: Consumer spending in October slipped by 1%.

Yet when I painstakingly avoided Shoporama-Land last weekend, Black Friday looked as busy and crazy as ever. Parking lots were jammed. Movie theaters were packed. And when out celebrating my birthday on Saturday night, most bars and restaurants were bustling and hustling hash to ravenous partiers.

Hey, didn’t they get the bad news?

Recessions aren’t fun. Losing a job sure can stink. And watching your investment portfolio shrink hurts. But 1%? That’s a mere penny per dollar less that we’re spending as a nation. Let’s break it down a few ways.

• Having a $9.90 martini instead of a $10 one. (Absolut instead of Gray Goose?)
• Getting a $4.95 candy snack at the movie instead of the $5.00 one.
• Splurging on a $198 cashmere sweater and letting go of the $200, better beauty.
• Offering $29,700 for that new Toyota and steadfastly refusing to pay $30K sticker.
• Spending $396, rather than $400, for your holiday gifts this year.
• Sending 99 holiday cards with 99 stamps (instead of 100) and skipping your slacker college roommate who has never sent you one, anyway.

It’s amazing to me that this kind of news actually alarms people. Markets? Sure, all they do is behave in bipolar ways. But the rest of us? Hey, we’re still having 99% as much fun as we did last year, as a whole.

Even my Very Close Personal Friend, THE ARMCHAIR ECONOMIST, told me:

“YOU’LL KNOW THIS DOWNTURN IS SERIOUS WHEN PITCHERS OF BEER BECOME MORE COMMON THAN THE PINK MARTINIS. BUT WORRY NOT: THE PEOPLE WILL STILL DRINK!”

I’ll drink to that—and I miss pitchers. Makes me sort of nostalgic (and thirsty) just thinking about it. Thanks, Old Sport. And may we all survive living on 99%.

Sorta brings new meaning to the term “Black Friday,” doesn’t it?  

From our good friends at Wiki:  

“In many cities it is not uncommon to see shoppers lined up hours before stores with big sales open. Once inside, the stores shoppers often rush and grab, as many stores have only a few of big draw items. On occasion, injuries and even fatalities are reported; in 2008, a worker at a Wal-Mart in Valley Stream, New York was trampled to death by shoppers who broke through the store’s glass doors minutes before the store’s scheduled opening at 5:00 am[7][8]; a pregnant mother was hospitalized from injuries in the same human “stampede”, though early reports of a resultant miscarriage were determined to be in error[9] [10]. And in Palm Desert, California two people shot and killed each other after an argument, possibly over merchandise, in a Toys R Us store.[11]”

Rest in peace.  

Oh jeez.  Looks like Santa’s going to be a bit of a Grinch this X-mas, among other signs of the times…

• 88% will spend the same or less on gifts
• 83% will buy more items on sale
• 75% feel pressure from debts
• 62% will wait for a sale
• 61% will focus on practical gifts
• 58% will cut back because of credit concerns
• 49% will cut travel plans
• Source: America’s Research Group/UBS, Maritz, Deloitte, Accenture, Consumer Reports, Thrivent

This stuff, or most of it, just don’t break my heart very much. I mean, who doesn’t complain about the over-commercialism of the holidays? What’s wrong with buying stuff on sale? What’s not to love about buying practical gifts instead of impractical ones?

Elsewhere in the newspapers, though, lurks news that strikes sadder notes. The downturn is causing closings of the little cafés that make Paris so distinctive—taking countless jobs and proud professions. Once there were 200,000; now there are 41,500. A way of life goes down the drain, rather like America’s farm crisis murdered small-town culture.

Meanwhile, in Boston, just outside the ivory-pearly gates of Harvard, a decades-old newsstand and gathering place is calling it quits. No longer can you get newspapers from all over the world, pick up the latest MAD magazine, or possibly meet a new friend.

Then again, who needs all that when you got texting on your Blackberry?

Here’s a book recommendation—for anyone who can handle relatively scholarly tomes.

It’s “The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence,” by Robert J. Samuelson. He’s out promoting it now, so you may hear him on a radio, TV, or podcast near you.

Although the book is mostly about a past period (’62 – ’82), Samuelson has plenty to say about today’s conditions. Mostly not good. The stock market and housing booms that made us “rich” for so long are over. So over. Prepare thyself for…

Affluence deprivation. That’s one of his million-dollar idioms, although with the downturn in the economy such as it is, perhaps it’s now worth only half that.

Affluence deprivation is what we are about to encounter—when people gradually “have” less, and it hurts. His point is: We still probably have enough, and perhaps more than most of the world and than most points in American history.

But…we’ll feel deprived. We’ll talk poor. (“Poor talk” is another old cliché’; it’s when people talked poor for decades long after the Depression was over and times were relatively great.)

We’ll soon talk about “back in the day,” when we drove SUVs to expensive eateries and drank pink martinis while wearing Sex-in-the-City designer duds. We’ll lament that we no longer fly to Vegas for suites, shows, Gray Goose, and craps.

Don’t let this era be a dud. Speak not of depraved deprivation. We’ll be fine. In many ways, we’re no less rich with time than we were when our portfolios were fat, dumb, and happy. Keep hacking away at your dreams and Big Ideas. And BreakAway from the poor-tawkin’ crowd…

Debt news is everywhere.  Are not we all forever indebted?

• 10 Percentage of Americans who are taking out more cash advances on their credit cards than in the past.
• 20 Percentage of respondents who indicate they are “sometimes” or “always” unable to pay their credit card and/or loan balances each month.
• 8 Percentage who say they can make only the minimum payment required.
• Source: Standard and Poor’s ExecuComp

The good news: These numbers, floating in air, don’t mean much without something to compare them to.

The bad news: Only a dummy would see any bright side to those numbers, with or without something to compare them to.

Folks, we are finally getting spanked for our squandering ways. Sure, it’s just numbers on paper. And so is money itself—and that was before computers made money a “virtual” concept and paper an ungreen commodity. But some big, fat RESET button in the fiscal sky is getting hit violently.

Ever see a thug play pinball? It’s not pretty. It usually breaks the machine, and then the rest of us can’t play our game with touch and intuition any more. Not until it gets fixed, which, of course, most pinball games don’t.

Who’s gonna pay for this stuff?

• The bailout(s)?
• The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout programs announced today (which failed to make stocks rally)?
• The car company bailouts?
• Overall government debt?
• Stimulus policies?
• A new New Deal?
• Evermore credit card debt—as illustrated above?

In the old days, you could find economists who would say things like, “Government debt doesn’t matter, because it’s only money a people owes to itself.” That argument doesn’t work not, though. The world is one big, broken piggy bank. And the U.S. owes gazillions to other countries. Do we expect them to give, forgive and forget?

No. So who’s gonna pay? You know who: Anybody with any cash. Anyone with taxable income. Anybody with a decent job and investing habits.

Bummer—if you should be so blessed, but that’s what you get for being “in the black.”
Nothing new about that, of course, but the stakes keep getting higher. Expect higher taxes, pathetic interest rates, little appreciation on your house and other hard assets, a stock market that will take years to get back to its recent highs, and possibly inflation. Stagflation. Deflation. Systemic, worldwide flatulence with not enough Gas-X to go around.

What’s this got to do with Sabbaticals? Plenty. If you’re waiting to get rich, or pay off all your debt, or have time to burn, it may never happen. Only you know. Or not.

Get out of town, while you still can. For now, you may have to overlook the debt. The banks. The government. The global meltdown that may or may not produce a kinder, gentler, stronger planet. You may have to stop hugging your dayjob, even though these days they are things worth holding onto.

Worry about YOU. Find a way to make time, take time, and let go of the numbers on paper that are crippling too many lives. Even if you’re about to file bankruptcy and lose your house, there may be a way. Life goes on. All you have is today, this moment, this breath.

As for the crisis? As usual, the experts and politicians are united in this one opinion: This too shall pass.

Have a sunny day.

This L. A. Times article is a must-read for anyone who:

• Thinks there is no upside to the downturn in shopping;
• believes they got it bad though they’ve not yet succumbed to thrift-store shopping;
• believes that it’s patriotic and good for the world to spend, spend, spend;
• would like to compare their debt load: “The typical American carries credit-card debt of more than $8,000…”

Author Judith Freeman nails it with this thoughtful missive…

It’s time to pull back. The beast of burden simply can’t carry any more. Few Americans have much in the way of savings. Many of us have lived beyond our means. The typical American carries credit card debt of more than $8,000, and credit is tightening. The party is over, and for many Americans it wasn’t even that much fun.

Yep, it’s time to pull back. And yet, many Goodwills and stuff donation centers are packed to the gills—turning down (or throwing away) donations. Waste management is a booming business. Storage services and pods keep expanding. And most Americans’ closets, pantries, AND panties are bursting.

Wanna BreakAway? Get out of debt. Spend less. (Ever try thrift and consignment stores? They can be entertaining, impressive, and inexpensive.) Try out the 11 Commandments of Fiscal Fitness. And remember: Even when money is in short supply, we are all equally rich with time.

TIME IS THE NEW MONEY.

Spend both sensibly! (Or both will be gone before you know what hit ya…)

Exxon made $15 billion in profit for Q3, so reports the AP (and all news sources) today. Q3: You know, that’s when we all were enjoying taking road trips with friends, or to the reunion, or to the cabin up north—while paying north of $4 a gallon.

Ain’t that America? When the little people (albeit often in their big vehicles) want to have some fun, the Big People find a way to make it hurt. $15 billion. That’s just nuts.

• $15 billion would provide 1.5 million people $10,000 seed money to start their Sabbatical.
• $15 billion would transform the economies of countless poor nations.
• $15 billion could provide the start-up funds for dozens and dozens of smart companies developing alternative energies.
• Heck, $15 billion could transform Exxon into oil + alterna giant—that is prepared for the future, when the oil runs dry.

But that’s not the way Exxon works. They are very used to making profits; one could almost say they’re addicted to it, like drivers are addicted to gas. Check out this AP factoid:

“If one-time gains like bankruptcy settlements and spinoffs are stripped away from other companies, Exxon Mobil owns the record for the top 10 most-profitable quarters for a U.S. company, as well as the largest annual profit.”

Yes, it’s true. In the previous quarter (Q2), Exxon made (only) $11.68 billion, the second-largest profit ever. For those of us watching our pennies and trying to save for a vacation, a BreakAway, or retirement, we have three reaction-options: Buy the stock; refuse to hold the stock (on moral grounds); Go for a ride (maybe on your bike) and don’t think too much about it.

I like the third option. Shift gears, let capitalism do its wild, funky thang, and ride on.

• 84 Percent of college students who say they are educated about money management and understand the consequences of debt.
• 50 Percentage who say they wish they had a plan to help decrease their debt.
• Source: Western Union Payment Services

If you read the previous entry about money disorders, here is some proof that such ailments run wide, deep, early and often in the U.S.A.

Analyzing these two little stats brings many theses (rhymes with feces) including…

Isn’t it amazing the confidence that youth (or is it all Americans?) have? 84% say they are educated about money, yippee, but 50% say they need help? Sorry, that’s a blithely ignorant nonstarter.

The 50% suggests that, obviously, half of them already have debt problems. Sure, college is a spendy time. But if you’re already worrisomely in debt and don’t have a plan, my bet is that you will suffer from that illness much or most of your life.

Shall we hazard a guess at their lifestyle? No judgment here, I hope they’re happy. But my gut says the majority have cell phones. Go out several nights a week. Drink better inebriants than we did in college. And wear cool, branded clothes. But hey, have fun!

False confidence. Deep debt. No plan. Ain’t that America? Yeesh.

This article, by New York Times reporter Sarah Kershaw, contains much great news.

Finally, the mental health community is embracing the notion of money disorders—beyond the old-school ones like kleptomania and Sex-in-the-Cityism (shopaholism).

There are many possible new disorder definitions and treatments emerging. But the favorite has to be workaholism. Don’t we all know about 5 dozen people who proudly proclaim themselves to be such? The ones I know seem utterly powerless over it, yet utterly proud of it. What a sick combo. (That’s like a certified alcoholic saying, “Watch me do all these shots!”)

In a recent seminar I led for graphic design professionals (“Your Big Break: Making and Taking Time for What Matters”), more than half of the participants said that they are workaholics. They did claim to want a Sabbatical someday. Hence, their attendance.

But the #1 obstacle they listed was workaholism. They’d all smile and headbob as another said the W word. Like they all belonged to some private club or were fanatic about some sports team.

It was hard, very hard, to know what to say to these folks. Usually, the #1 obstacle is lack of money. Workaholism is the new debt, perhaps?

This article mentions a survey from June 2008—before the market crash—that found that,

“75% of the more than 2,500 adults surveyed said money was the No. 1 source of stress in their lives.”

Sad. Market vagaries aside, truth is we live in a rich country. Most people could live within their means, they just don’t know how.

Maybe they DO have a disorder. Maybe, finally, they can get some professional help. And I’m not tawkin’ about seeing a stock jockey.